Counting Down to Apollo

One American's account of watching humanity reach the Moon

The Soviets and the Zond

Zond 5 launched last week on what looks very much like a crewed lunar mission rehearsal. Are the Soviets about to put cosmonauts around the Moon before we get there?

Zond 5 launched last week on a trajectory that takes it around the Moon and back to Earth. It’s unmanned — confirmed unmanned, we’re told — but the Zond spacecraft is a modified Soyuz designed for exactly the crew capacity needed for a lunar flyby.

This is the preparation. If Zond 5 succeeds — if it flies around the Moon and returns — then the next Zond mission could carry cosmonauts. A Soviet manned lunar flyby before Apollo can get there.

The Soviets have been working toward this in pieces: unmanned Zond tests, Earth-orbital Soyuz tests, cosmonaut training. They’ve been quieter about their program than we have been about ours — Soviet space program announcements come after the success, not before, which means we’re often surprised by what they’ve accomplished.

There is reportedly serious discussion at NASA about accelerating Apollo 8, which was originally planned as an Earth-orbital test of the command and service module. The accelerated version would skip the near-Earth testing and send Apollo 8 directly into lunar orbit — a bold move, maybe a desperate one, to get Americans to the Moon first even if it means more risk.

I’ve been sitting with the idea of sending Apollo 8 to lunar orbit before the lunar module is ready, before anyone has actually landed on the Moon, before the full mission profile has been tested. It’s audacious. It’s also the kind of thing that ends in tragedy if something goes wrong.

But here’s the strategic calculation: if the Soviets fly a crewed lunar flyby first, the “race to the Moon” narrative changes. The first people to see the Moon up close are Soviets. The first pictures of Earth from the Moon are Soviet pictures. The first voices from lunar distance are Soviet voices. Even if we land first — which is the harder thing and the thing that matters more — some of the glory is gone.

I understand why NASA might want to prevent that. I’m not sure I agree that preventing it justifies the risk. But I’m an insurance adjuster in Ohio, not a flight director.

Zond 5 is on its way around the Moon right now. There are living things aboard — turtles, some bacteria, seeds — as a biological test. It will return to Earth in about a week.

If it returns safely, the pressure on NASA to get to lunar orbit fast is going to intensify considerably.

I’m watching.